Occasional dispatches on sport, numbers, and whatever else I can't stop turning over. Filed here roughly as they happen.
The Odyssey opens this weekend. A model built from every Nolan opening predicts $100M domestic, and asks whether it becomes his first billion-dollar film outside Batman.
Spain vs Argentina, Sunday's World Cup final, run through an Elo-plus-xG model built by Claude Fable. One headline number, written down before kickoff: 64-36.
Sinner's serve was never broken at Wimbledon. A win-probability needle explains why the final felt calmer than the scoreline let on.